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What points to a Bayern win at Atalanta

Anyone who steps outside can feel it immediately: spring is in the air – and with it that special tingle only football can evoke. As the days get longer, the season of decisions begins. Bayern kick off the Champions League knockout stages when they travel to face Atalanta in the north of Italy on Tuesday at 21:00 CET. The round of 16 is a happy hunting ground for FC Bayern, as a look at recent history reveals: Munich have won 11 of their last 12 ties at this stage. We take a look at interesting facts and figures ahead of the first leg at La Dea.

Confidence from form and history

Lennart Karl & Co. won their seventh out of eight Champions League league phase matches at PSV. | © FC Bayern

Confidence from form and history

Lennart Karl & Co. won their seventh out of eight Champions League league phase matches at PSV. | © FC Bayern

The trip to Bergamo takes Bayern into uncharted territory as the German record champions face Atalanta for the first time in European competition. A look back at the history against Italian sides should give Vincent Kompany’s team a boost: Munich have advanced in four of their last five knockout ties against Serie A teams. Luis Díaz & Co will be looking to add to that record against the club from Lombardy.

The German record champions undoubtedly have the necessary confidence. They have won seven of their eight matches so far in this Champions League campaign, only losing 3-1 to Arsenal, who topped the league phase table, in November.

Bayern's top goal average vs. Atalanta's vulnerability

On average, FC Bayern score more goals than any other team in the Champions League knockout stages. Michael Olise & Co aim to demonstrate their scoring prowess at Atalanta too. | © FC Bayern

Bayern's top goal average vs. Atalanta's vulnerability

On average, FC Bayern score more goals than any other team in the Champions League knockout stages. Michael Olise & Co aim to demonstrate their scoring prowess at Atalanta too. | © FC Bayern

Many facts point to Bayern continuing their success story in the round of 16. The Reds boast the highest goal average per game in the knockout stages – no other team who have contested at least five games in the knockout phase have achieved such a good rate. Atalanta on the other hand haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their nine knockout fixtures, conceding a total of 18 goals – two per game on average. La Dea have also lost six of their last seven knockout matches in Europe’s premier club competition, the exception being the 4-1 win over Borussia Dortmund that secured their progression to this round of 16.

However, Bayern should not underestimate the side from the north of Italy. Our upcoming opponents have been a stumbling block for German teams in recent years. Atalanta have won four of their last five encounters with German clubs since the beginning of 2024, and have only lost three of their 13 matches against Bundesliga sides overall.

Structured build-up play, power in the final third

Joshua Kimmich's passing skills will be important at Atalanta too. | © FC Bayern

Structured build-up play, power in the final third

Joshua Kimmich's passing skills will be important at Atalanta too. | © FC Bayern

Munich shine not only as a collective, but also with outstanding individual quality. The German record champions are the only team to have two midfielders who’ve played at least 100 line-breaking passes this Champions League campaign: Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlović (102 each). Passes into space might be a key factor against Atalanta too.

Once the ball is in the final third, Bayern unleash their full force up front, our number nine in particular: Harry Kane has been involved in 33 goals in 33 UCL matches for Bayern, scoring 27 and setting up six. No player in the competition has been involved in more goals than our striker since the 2023/24 season.

Bayern aim to display their individual quality as part of a good team performance to put themselves in a strong position ahead of the second leg in Munich. Pack ma’s!

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